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Optimization for 2040 based on 2018 with 85% emission reduction

Overview

This document includes assumptions, results and interactive figures about the optimization for the Spanish energy mix in 2040 considering 2018 data with a 75% of emission reduction.

Main assumptions for 2040 electric mix

  • Shut down of coal power plants.
  • Shut down of nuclear power plants.
  • Cogeneration power reduced from 5.74 GW (2018) to 0.86 GW (2040), a 85% reduction.
  • Fuel & gas power reduced form 2.49 GW (2018) to 0.37 GW (2040), a 85% reduction.
  • New solar thermal power plants have 12-hour thermal storage capacity with a 90% of storage efficiency.
  • Pumped hydropower increased from 3.3 GW (2018) to 8 GW (2040).
  • Pumped hydropower capacity increased from 14 GWh (2018) to 33.9 GWh (2040) with a 76% of storage efficiency.
  • Electric batteries with 5 GW of power and 20 GW of capacity.
  • 0.5% annual demand increment from 2018 to 2030 and 1.5% from 2030 to 2040.
  • 85% emission reduction with respect to 1990.


Main results

Installed power PV (GW) Installed power wind (GW) Installed power CSP (GW) Total installed power (GW) Renewable power (GW) Mean energy cost (c€/kWh)
48.55 89.73 17.37 214.72 186.72 (86.96%) 4.61

Demand (TWh) Generated elec. (TWh) Exported elec. (TWh) Imported elec. (TWh) Dumped elec. (TWh) CO2 emissions (kton) and reduction (%) (1)
301.15 374.69 -37.2 0.07 36.41 9,679.54 (85.00 %)

(1) Percentage reduction with respect to emissions in 1990 (64,538 kton CO2).

Optimization Variables

New power of the following energy sources to be installed:

  • Photovoltaic power (PV).
  • Wind power.
  • Concentrating solar power (CSP).


Optimization Goals

Minimize the following criteria:

  • Average electricity generation cost.
  • Dumped energy.


Optimization Restrictions

  • Electric demand must be at least matched.
  • Combined cycle power plants are used as much as possible but without exceeding the maximum allowed CO2 emissions.


Information

Region:        Spain
Target year:        2040
Data year:        2018
CO2 reduction:        85%
Authors:        Julián Blanco, Javier Bonilla, Eduardo Zarza and Diego Alarcón


Optimization details





About

Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA), a dependency of CIEMAT, is the largest concentrating solar technology research, development and test center in Europe. PSA activities are integrated in the CIEMAT organization as an R&D division of the Department of Energy.

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Plataforma Solar de Almería
Ctra. de Senés km. 4,5 Tabernas,
Almería, Spain.

Email: info@psa.es
Tel: +34 950 387 800
Website: https://www.psa.es

License

Check the usage license for data and figures of this website at the About page